The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rebounded to +0.14 in April 2026, recovering from a revised contraction of –0.15 in March.
Released on May 26, 2026, by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, a positive reading indicates that the U.S. economy expanded slightly above its historical average trend rate of growth. The indicator's more stable three-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3) also ticked upward slightly, rising from +0.02 to +0.03.
Underlying Category Contributions
The index tracks 85 individual economic indicators, which are weighted across four broad categories:
- Production and Income (+0.18): This category drove the monthly rebound, swinging drastically from a negative contribution of –0.13 in March due to a sharp recovery in industrial and manufacturing output.
- Sales, Orders, and Inventories (+0.02): Demand metrics improved slightly, crawling out of negative territory from March's –0.03 reading.
- Employment, Unemployment, and Hours (–0.02): Labor indicators cooled down, slipping from a neutral contribution the previous month.
- Personal Consumption and Housing (–0.04): Retail activity and real estate remained the primary drag on the index, weakening further from flat territory.
Core Metrics Summary
- Monthly CFNAI +0.14–0.15 (Revised) Growth slightly above historical trend
- Three-Month Moving Avg. (CFNAI-MA3) +0.03 +0.02 Consistent with stable economic expansion
- CFNAI Diffusion Index +0.06 +0.03 Indicates broader geographic and sector improvement
- Positive vs. Negative Indicators 47 positive / 38 negative 34 positive / 51 negative Out of 85 macro indicators, 44 improved month-over-month
With production accelerating but consumption lagging, would you like to see how this correlates with the upcoming Gross Domestic Product (GDP) updates or look closer into manufacturing sector performance?
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