The New York Fed's SCE Labor Market Survey data update is scheduled for release today, Monday, April 20, 2026. This survey is fielded every four months and provides a detailed look at consumer experiences and expectations regarding employment, job transitions, and wages.
Expected Today (April 20, 2026)
The upcoming data update follows the general Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) released on April 7, which showed a "mixed" outlook for the labor market:
- Job Finding: The mean perceived probability of finding a job if one's current job was lost improved slightly to 45.9%.
- Job Loss: The mean probability of losing one's job in the next 12 months increased to 14.4%.
- Unemployment: Expectations that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now also worsened.
Recent Trends (Previous Survey Results)
Based on the most recent full Labor Market module (November 2025/February 2026 updates):
- Reservation Wages: The average lowest wage individuals would accept for a new job has been on a long-term upward trend, reaching a high of $81,822 in early 2024 before stabilizing around $81,147 later that year.
- Job Search Intensity: The proportion of individuals searching for a job has reached its highest level since 2014, particularly among those over age 45 and those without a college degree.
- Transitions: Transition rates to new employers have slowed, with the market characterized as a "low-hire, low-fire" environment.
- Retirement Expectations: The average likelihood of working beyond age 67 recently reached 35.6%, the highest since the pandemic began.
Broader Economic Context
- March Jobs Data: The U.S. added 178,000 jobs in March, significantly beating expectations, while the unemployment rate fell slightly to 4.3%.
- AI Impact: A recent New York Fed study indicates 62% of respondents believe AI will increase the unemployment rate over the next year.
SCE LABOR MARKET SURVEY
March Survey: Job Satisfaction Declines; Likelihood of Moving to a New Employer Lowest Since 2021
- The proportion of individuals who reported searching for a job in the past four weeks declined to 22.5 percent from 23.8 percent in November 2025. The decrease was most pronounced for respondents younger than age 45 and women.
- Satisfaction with wage compensation, nonwage benefits, and promotion opportunities declined by 3.3, 0.6, and 3.1 percentage points (ppts), respectively. Satisfaction with wage compensation and promotion opportunities are both the lowest since the start of these series in March 2014.
- The expected likelihood of moving to a new employer declined by 1.4 ppts to 9.7 percent, the lowest value since March 2021. The decline was driven by those without a college degree.
- The average reservation wage—the lowest wage respondents would be willing to accept for a new job—increased to a series high of $84,762 in March. This increase was most pronounced for men and respondents with a college degree.
About:
The SCE Labor Market Survey is fielded every four months as a rotating module of the Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE). The data are updated online as results come in.
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