The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index plummeted to a record low of 47.6 in early April 2026, marking an 11% decline from March. This is the lowest reading in the survey's 74-year history, driven primarily by concerns over the ongoing military conflict and resultant price spikes.
Key Sentiment Indicators (April 2026 Preliminary)
- Headline Index: 47.6 (Down from 53.3 in March).
- Current Economic Conditions: 50.1 (Down from 55.8 in March).
- Index of Consumer Expectations: 46.1 (Down from 51.7 in March), the weakest level since 1980.
- Inflation Expectations (1-Year): Surged to 4.8% from 3.8% in March, the largest monthly jump in a year.
- Inflation Expectations (5-Year): Ticked up to 3.4% from 3.2%.
Drivers of the Record Low
- Geopolitical Conflict: Approximately 98% of survey interviews were conducted before the April 7 ceasefire announcement; many respondents explicitly blamed the Iran conflict for economic instability.
- Price Concerns: Assessments of personal finances fell 11% as consumers struggled with high prices for gas and essential goods.
- Asset Values: Weakening asset values and high interest rates have further deteriorated buying conditions for vehicles and durable goods.
- Labor Market Fears: Unemployment fears reached their highest level since 2009, despite actual unemployment rates remaining relatively low.
Alternative Measures
- Conference Board Consumer Confidence: This index actually inched up to 91.8 in March (released March 31), as current labor market resilience temporarily offset declining future expectations. Its next update is scheduled for April 28.
- Bloomberg HT Index: Reported a mid-April recovery to 71.58, largely attributed to optimism surrounding the temporary ceasefire.
Final data for the University of Michigan survey is expected on April 24, 2026.
Would you like to track how these sentiment lows compare to historical recession periods or see the latest inflation data released this week?
All responses may include mistakes. For financial advice, consult a professional. Learn more
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