The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index plunged to an all-time record low of 47.6 in the preliminary April 2026 report, released on April 10, 2026.
Latest Data (April 2026 Preliminary)
- Headline Sentiment: 47.6 (Down 10.7% from March's final reading of 53.3).
- This is the lowest reading in the survey's 70-plus-year history, falling below the previous record low of 50.0 set in June 2022.
- Current Economic Conditions: Dropped to 50.1 from 55.8 in March.
- Consumer Expectations: Fell to 46.1, its lowest level since 1980.
- Inflation Expectations (1-Year): Surged to 4.8%, up from 3.8% in March. This represents the steepest one-month jump since April 2025.
- Inflation Expectations (5-Year): Rose to 3.4% from 3.2% in March.
Key Drivers of the Decline
- Geopolitical Conflict: Consumers overwhelmingly cited the ongoing conflict in Iran as the primary reason for their worsening economic outlook.
- Energy Costs: Rising oil and gas prices, which broke above $4.00 per gallon nationally, have heavily impacted household budgets.
- Financial Volatility: Market uncertainty and declining asset values, particularly for middle- and higher-income households with stock wealth, further weighed on sentiment.
Outlook and Observations
- Timing of Interviews: Nearly 98% of the survey interviews were completed before the announcement of a temporary ceasefire on April 7, 2026.
- Potential Recovery: Survey Director Joanne Hsu noted that expectations may improve in the final April reading if consumers gain confidence that supply disruptions have ended and gas prices stabilize.
- Historical Context: The current level is significantly lower than sentiment levels at the start of all six U.S. recessions since the survey's inception.
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The Consumer Price Index (CPI) surged to 3.3% year-over-year in March 2026, marking the highest annual inflation rate in nearly two years.Trading Economics +1
Latest Inflation Data (March 2026)
- Headline CPI (YoY): 3.3% (Up from 2.4% in February).
- Monthly CPI (MoM): +0.9%, the largest monthly jump since June 2022.
- Core CPI (YoY): 2.6%, which excludes volatile food and energy costs. It rose more modestly than the headline figure, slightly below the 2.7% consensus.
- Core CPI (MoM): +0.2%.
Primary Drivers of the Surge
- Energy Crisis: Energy costs spiked 10.9% in March alone.
- Gasoline: Rose a record 21.2% in a single month, accounting for nearly three-quarters of the total headline increase.
- Fuel Oil: Surged 44.2% year-over-year.
- Geopolitical Impact: The jump was almost entirely attributed to the start of the Iran conflict on February 28, which disrupted global oil supplies and the Strait of Hormuz.
- Travel Costs: Airline fares climbed 2.7% in March, driven by rising jet fuel prices.
Sectors Showing Relief
- Grocery Prices: The "food at home" index fell 0.2% monthly, with notable drops in eggs (-3.4%) and dairy (-0.6%).
- Vehicles: Used cars and trucks continued to decline, falling 3.2% over the last 12 months.
Upcoming Release
- The April 2026 CPI report is scheduled for release by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Tuesday, May 12, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. ET.
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