The minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held on March 17–18, 2026, were released today, Wednesday, April 8, 2026, at 2:00 p.m. EDT.
Key Takeaways from the March 2026 Minutes
- Rate Policy Hold: The Committee maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% to 3.75%.
- Inflation Outlook: Policymakers raised their 2026 inflation projections for both total and core PCE to 2.7%. They highlighted concerns that the oil market shock following the Middle East conflict could cause more persistent inflationary pressures.
- Rate Cut Projections: Updated projections (the "dot plot") signaled a median of only one rate cut for 2026, down from previous expectations.
- Economic Resilience: The Committee noted that economic activity has continued to expand at a "solid pace," despite low job gains and elevated uncertainty regarding the war with Iran.
- Hawkish Undertone: While Chair Jerome Powell was viewed as balanced, the minutes reveal "behind the scenes" discussions where some members suggested readiness to hold rates longer or even consider hikes if inflation expectations become unanchored.
Upcoming FOMC Schedule
- April 28–29, 2026 Next Policy Meeting May 20, 2026
- June 16–17, 2026 Policy Meeting & Projections July 8, 2026
FOMC Minutes Impact
While the minutes showed some officials were open to potential rate hikes if inflation remained sticky, investors largely "looked through" this hawkishness. The ceasefire-driven drop in oil prices is expected to lower near-term inflation projections, leading markets to price back in a nearly 40% chance of a rate cut later in 2026.
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