New orders for U.S. manufactured durable goods fell 1.4% in February 2026 to $315.5 billion, missing market expectations of a 1.0% to 1.1% decline. This marks a continued trend of contraction, with orders down in four of the last five months.
February 2026 Key Data Points
- Headline Durable Goods: -1.4% (Actual) vs. -1.0% (Expected).
- Excluding Transportation: +0.8% (Actual) vs. +0.4% (Expected), showing underlying strength in non-vehicle sectors.
- Excluding Defense: -1.2%, following a revised 0.2% gain in January.
- Core Capital Goods: +0.6% (non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft), a key proxy for business investment.
- Shipments: +1.3% to $319.2 billion, the strongest reading in several months and a positive indicator for Q1 GDP.
Sector Performance
- Transportation: Drove the overall decline with a 5.4% drop ($106.1 billion), led by volatility in aircraft and motor vehicles.
- Manufacturing Pockets: Broad-based gains in shipments for primary metals (+2.3%), motor vehicles (+3.0%), and machinery (+1.2%) suggest manufacturing is more resilient than sentiment surveys imply.
- Technology: Demand for AI models continues to support orders for computers and electronics.
Economic Context
- Business Caution: Sustained declines in overall orders suggest businesses may be cautious due to economic uncertainty or high financing rates.
- Market Impact: The larger-than-expected drop in the headline figure is generally viewed as bearish for the U.S. Dollar and may influence future Federal Reserve interest rate decisions.
- Indicator Type: Durable goods (items lasting 3+ years) serve as a leading indicator for industrial activity; an increase typically signals economic expansion.
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