The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index rose 0.9% year-over-year in January 2026, marking a continued cooling in the U.S. housing market compared to the 1.1% gain seen in December 2025.
January 2026 Key Index Data
Reports released on March 31, 2026, show that home price appreciation has slowed significantly, with gains now lagging behind the rate of inflation.
- U.S. National Index: Rose 0.9% annually (down from 1.1% in December).
- 20-City Composite: Increased 1.2% year-over-year.
- 10-City Composite: Increased 1.7% year-over-year.
- Monthly Change: After seasonal adjustment, the National, 10-City, and 20-City indices each reported a 0.2% monthly increase.
Regional Performance (January 2026)
Performance varied widely across major metropolitan areas, with Midwestern cities leading and Sun Belt markets continuing to see declines.
- Top Gaining Cities:
- New York: +4.9%
- Chicago: +4.6%
- Notable Declines:
- Tampa: -2.5%
- Phoenix: -1.5%
- Dallas: -1.5%
- Miami: -1.5%
Market Context
- Real Value Decline: Inflation (CPI) outpaced home price growth for the eighth consecutive month, meaning home values effectively declined in "real" (inflation-adjusted) terms by approximately 1.5 percentage points.
- Interest Rate Impact: High mortgage rates (averaging near 6.38% in March 2026) and affordability constraints are cited as primary drivers for the "materially" slowed appreciation.
- Historical Benchmark: The indices use a base value of 100 as of January 2000. A current reading of 336.64 for the 20-City Composite means prices have more than tripled since that time.
Add comment
Comments