The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell to a final reading of 53.3 in March 2026. This marks a nearly 6% decline from February's 56.6 and is significantly lower than the 57.0 recorded one year ago.
Key March 2026 Metrics
- Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS): 53.3 (Final).
- Current Economic Conditions (CECI): 55.8.
- Index of Consumer Expectations (ICE): 51.7.
- Year-Ahead Inflation Expectations: Remained steady at 3.4%.
- Five-Year Inflation Expectations: Dipped slightly to 3.2% from 3.3%.
Primary Drivers of Decline
- Geopolitical Conflict: Heightened anxiety following the outbreak of the Iran war.
- Rising Fuel Costs: National average gasoline prices rose roughly 33% over the past month, reaching approximately $3.978 per gallon.
- Plunging Short-Run Outlook: The survey's measure of the one-year economic outlook dropped 14%, while expectations for personal finances sank 10%.
Context & Historical Comparison
- Relative Lows: The March reading is the lowest since December 2025 and sits just above the historic low reached in mid-2022 during peak inflation.
- Impact on Policy: While long-run expectations remain somewhat stable, economists suggest consumers may "throw in the towel" and reduce spending if high gas prices and stock market volatility persist.
Would you like to see how these figures compare to the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index for the same period?
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