The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 55.5 in the preliminary March 2026 report, down from 56.6 in February. This represents a 1.9% monthly decline and marks the lowest reading of 2026 so far.
March 2026 Preliminary Key Figures
- Consumer Sentiment Index: 55.5 (Current) vs. 56.6 (Feb).
- Current Economic Conditions: 57.8 (Up from 56.6 in Feb).
- Index of Consumer Expectations: 54.1 (Down from 56.6 in Feb).
- Year-Ahead Inflation Expectations: Stalled at 3.4%.
- Long-Run (5-Year) Inflation Expectations: Inched down to 3.2%.
Core Drivers of the Decline
- Geopolitical Conflict: Sentiment was initially improving early in the month but dropped sharply following the start of the US military conflict with Iran on February 28.
- Gasoline Prices: Higher fuel costs had the most immediate negative impact on consumer outlook.
- Personal Finances: Expectations for personal finances fell 7.5% nationwide, with declines reported across all income and age groups.
Historical Context & Trends
- Three-Month Low: This reading is the lowest in three months, erasing gains seen at the start of the year.
- Inflation Sentiment: The 3.4% year-ahead expectation ended six consecutive months of declines.
- Stock Market Influence: Previous reports noted a sharp divide, where sentiment was significantly higher among consumers with large stock portfolios compared to those without.
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