The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) for March 2026 was released on April 23, 2026. It decreased to –0.20 from a revised +0.03 in February.
Key Data Points (March 2026)
- Monthly Index (CFNAI): –0.20.
- A reading below zero indicates growth below its historical trend.
- Fifty-one of the 85 individual indicators made negative contributions in March.
- Three-Month Moving Average (CFNAI-MA3): –0.03 (down from +0.03 in February).
- This is the lowest monthly reading since November 2025.
- Historically, a CFNAI-MA3 below –0.70 suggests an increasing likelihood of a recession.
- Diffusion Index: –0.04 (up from –0.08 in February).
Category Contributions
The index is a weighted average of 85 indicators across four categories:
- Production and Income: –0.20 (down from +0.13).
- Employment, Unemployment, and Hours: +0.02 (up from –0.15).
- Sales, Orders, and Inventories: –0.01 (down from +0.05).
- Personal Consumption and Housing: –0.01 (down from 0.00).
Historical Context & Future Releases
- Trend Growth: A zero value indicates the economy is expanding at its historical trend rate.
- Next Release: The data for April 2026 is scheduled to be released on May 26, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. ET.
- Current Briefing Context: This slip in the CFNAI aligns with the broader caution mentioned in your morning briefing, specifically regarding the Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting and its stance on interest rates.
Would you like me to track the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index or other regional activity reports for today?
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