Trade Setup

🔍 Fed Policy Realignment

The massive hiring beat directly disrupted a brief rally triggered yesterday by dovish comments from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, who stated he would support holding rates steady if inflation continued to melt away. 

• FedWatch Shift: According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders have aggressively adjusted expectations. The implied probability of a September Fed interest rate hike surged to 58%, up from 49.4% just one day ago.

🪙 Macro Headwinds vs. The Bitcoin Flywheel

• Yield Pressure: The massive +162,000 surge in Nonfarm Payrolls has sent the 2-year Treasury yield soaring to its highest level since January 2025. Usually, a sharp rise in yields creates a headwind for non-yielding speculative assets like Bitcoin.
• The $27 Strike Line Lock-In: For Strive, the broader market pullback in equity futures has paused its immediate run toward the $27 key threshold. Despite the index drops, ASST shares are maintaining yesterday's structural gains, keeping the company's $700 million warrant-trigger target for mid-October firmly in play.

📉 Bitcoin (BTC-USD) Technical Trade Setup

• The Macro Shock: The +162,000 payrolls blowout abruptly reversed a massive institutional capital wave. Yesterday, dovish Fed commentary fueled Bitcoin's largest ETF net inflow in 9 months, lifting prices past $81,000. Today's hawkish data spike in Treasury yields has completely unwound that move. 
• Support & Demand Zones: Initial local support at $80,600 has failed. Traders are now watching the $79,200 to $79,400 area to hold structural demand. If this zone caves, a deeper liquidity sweep toward $78,500 is highly probable before the weekend. 
• Resistance Levels: Bulls must recapture $80,800 and firmly flip $81,300 to repair today's technical damage and restart the upward momentum. 

📊 Strive Inc. (ASST) Technical Trade Setup

• Premium Multiple & Dilution Drag: ASST is feeling an intensified correction, falling to $25.84. Because Strive trades at a sharp premium (~1.69x) to its modified Net Asset Value (mNAV), it exhibits amplified volatility when underlying Bitcoin prices soften. 
• The $27 Strike Threat: The pullback creates tactical friction for management's milestone flywheel. Strive requires the stock price to trade and hold above $27.00 into mid-October to unlock $700 million in warrant-exercise capital for its treasury expansion. Today's drop distances the stock from that trigger line. 
• Key Trading Levels: Local intraday support rests at $25.18 (today's opening low). A breach below this opens up a drop to $24.30. Overhead resistance sits aggressively at yesterday's peak of $26.84. 

To refine your specific setup for today's session, comment below:

• Your preferred holding timeline (scalping intraday, multi-day swing trading, or long-term treasury tracking?)
• If you are looking for specific options chain data (such as implied volatility or open interest changes on ASST calls?)
• Whether you would like a direct premium-to-NAV comparison against other corporate treasuries like Strategy (MSTR)?