Volatility and tight trading ranges define this morning's trade setup as investors freeze ahead of the Federal Reserve’s pivotal 2:00 p.m. ET policy statement.
While a baseline hold is anticipated, macro teams at Citadel Securities and UBS are actively flagging the risk of a surprise hawkish rate hike. This risk is driven by persistent inflation and the ongoing conflict involving Iran.
Here is how key assets are positioned for the session:
🪙 Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Trade Setup
Bitcoin has decoupled from the global chip sell-off, holding a modest 1.18% gain this morning to push toward $64,491.36.
- The Pivot Zone: $63,930.69 serves as the primary daily pivot point. Trading continuously above this line signals institutional absorption.
- Upside Targets (Bull Case): Immediate resistance rests at $64,062.82 (R1). Clearing this opens a fast path to $64,240.39 (R2) and potentially $64,372.52 (R3) if the Fed delivers a dovish tone.
- Downside Levels (Bear Case): If the pivot fails, support sits thin at $63,753.12 (S1) and $63,620.99 (S2). A hawkish rate surprise could break these structural floors, triggering a deeper correction toward $63,000.
Strive Inc. (NASDAQ: ASST) is trading slightly lower at $11.96 as of 9:50 AM ET. The stock is consolidating near its 52-week low amid ongoing cash-burn concerns and broader tech equity weakness.
However, corporate action remains highly active. Strive just reported purchasing another 79 Bitcoins between July 20 and July 24, pushing its total treasury stash to 20,000 Bitcoins. This aggressive strategy preserves its tight structural correlation to the crypto market.
The tactical trade setup for ASST for this morning's session maps out as follows:
📊 Structural Trading Levels
- The Pivot Zone: $11.98 (yesterday's close) represents the crucial psychological baseline. Sustained trading below this line keeps intraday momentum firmly in the hands of short-term short sellers.
- Upside Targets (Bull Case): If the morning dip finds structural buyers, the primary level to reclaim is the early intraday high of $12.02. Breaking above this level opens a path to test the daily overhead supply zone up at $12.25.
- Downside Levels (Bear Case): Immediate support rests at the early morning low of $11.82. If this micro-floor fails, anticipate a breakdown toward historical support levels near $11.46 or the ultimate 52-week structural bottom of $7.02.
Let me know how you would like to track this:
- Are you trading the equity shares directly or looking at options chain premium?
- Would you like a real-time comparison of ASST's relative strength against Bitcoin over the last 5 days?
All responses may include mistakes. For financial advice, consult a professional. Learn more
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