The U.S. Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) decreased to -0.04 in August 2026, down from an upwardly revised +0.08 in July. This morning's fresh data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago indicates that national economic growth slowed down slightly toward the end of the summer, matching consensus expectations.
Because the CFNAI uses a base value of zero to signify historical trend growth, a reading of -0.04 indicates that the economy expanded at a slightly below-average pace in August.
🔍 Breakdown of the Component Categories
The indicator tracks 85 individual monthly metrics, which are grouped into four core contributions:
- Production & Income (-0.07): This category dragged down the index the most, dropping from a flat 0.00 reading in July, pointing to cooler industrial activity.
- Sales, Orders, & Inventories (0.00): Hit a flat neutral pace, showing a marked contraction from the robust +0.15 contribution logged in July.
- Employment-Related Indicators (+0.01): Modestly improved from -0.01 in July, showing minor resilience in job markets.
- Personal Consumption & Housing (+0.01): Crested into positive territory, bouncing back from -0.06 in July to provide a minor buffer for the headline figure.
📈 Moving Average & Trends
Despite the dip in the single-month print, the index’s less-volatile three-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3) ticked up to +0.01 in August from a revised -0.01 in July. A sustained moving average above -0.70 generally signals that the U.S. economy remains safely insulated from any immediate recessionary territory.
Comment below:
Would you like to examine historical charts of the CFNAI-MA3 alongside past economic contractions, or look at how this morning's index release is affecting intraday Treasury yields?
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