Bitcoin (BTC-USD) is heading into a major options expiry that could add fresh pressure to a market already dealing with weaker institutional demand and a tougher macro backdrop. Around $10 billion in notional Bitcoin options is set to expire on Deribit at 4 p.m. Friday in Singapore, representing about 37% of total open interest. Deribit's Jean-David Pequignot said the market had been positioned for higher prices over the medium term, but Bitcoin's recent slide has pushed many bullish call bets offside.
Bitcoin dropped to $59,023 in New York on Wednesday, its lowest level since October 2024, before recovering to around $61,650 Thursday morning in London. The cryptocurrency is now down more than 50% from its record high and remains below its 200-week moving average, a technical level that could point to a longer bear-market phase. With most call options now out of the money and puts clustered around $60,000 to $65,000 and $70,000 to $75,000, bearish trades may be better positioned if weakness continues.
Active Investors Club's Abdel Taboada noted that options expiry may clear positioning rather than decide Bitcoin's direction, but thin quarter-end and summer liquidity could possibly make Friday's move sharper before dealer hedging unwinds. The trade setup also looks challenging, with US-listed Bitcoin funds seeing almost $3 billion of net outflows in June so far, while Strategy Inc. remains under pressure from investor concerns over its financial obligations. Longer-dated bearish bias has intensified as hawkish Federal Reserve commentary and elevated Treasury yields suggest tighter liquidity, a backdrop where Bitcoin typically does not perform as well.
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